While south films like Baahubali, KGF, and RRR have minted money up north, Bollywood films haven’t done the same kind of business down south. Trade experts analyse how Shah Rukh Khan’s Jawan can change that.
For years, the Hindi film industry had dominated the national cinema landscape, giving the biggest hits and producing the most popular stars, barring a few notable exceptions. However, over the last 7-8 years, a new brand of cinema has emerged from the south where Tamil, Telugu and Kannada films have outdone Hindi films even up north, becoming ‘pan India’ hits. This has caused a shift in the power dynamics of Indian cinema as the superstars from Bollywood have been unable to replicate this success nationally. But trade experts believe that Shah Rukh now has that chance with his latest film Jawan.
How Bollywood has fallen short of ‘pan India’ success
For three decades, Shah Rukh Khan has been a force to reckon with at the box office. Barring a brief lull in the second half of the 2010s, Shah Rukh has been the undisputed king of the box office in Hindi cinema, churning out highest grosser across territories and even abroad. However, down South, his stardom has not been able to translate into the kind of numbers someone like, say, Rajinikanth has managed up north. Even the newer heroes from south have had hits bigger than Shah Rukh’s.
For instance, Pathaan – the highest-grossing Hindi film ever – did a business of Rs 96 crore in the four south states. This includes Rs 77 crore in Hindi, Rs 13 crore in Telugu, an Rs 6 crore in Tamil. In comparison, Kannada film KGF 2 collected Rs 434 crore in Hindi, Telugu hit RRR Rs 274 crore, and even an unheralded Pushpa earned over Rs 100 crore up north. And these figures do not include the collection of their original language versions in the north. Clearly, Bollywood has some catching up to do.
How Jawan can be Bollywood’s first ‘pan India’ hit
But trade analysts feel that Jawan will be the breakthrough that Bollywood has looked for in going ‘pan India’. Trade analyst Atul Mohan argues, “This is essentially a Tamil film starring Shah Rukh Khan. The director (Atlee) is from the south as is the composer (Anirudh Ravichander). Much of the cast and crew are also from the Tamil film industry. So because of that, the film has a lot of buzz in the south. It is truly Bollywood’s first pan-India film since the term was coined. I will be surprised if this film does not earn Rs 200 crore from the south market.”
Those who know the film market in Tamil Nadu – from where Atlee hails – agree to an extent. Trade analyst Ramesh Bala says, “Action movies work better in Tamil Nadu and in south in general. Then, Atlee’s cache will help Jawan in the region. This is being seen as an Atlee film with Shah Rukh.” Bala adds that Jawan can help Shah Rukh expand his box office presence in the tier-2 and 3 centres down south. “Up till now, Bollywood films – barring few – work largely in the big cities in south. But if Jawan does well, Shah Rukh’s reach will expand to the tier-2 and tier-3 centres in the four southern states. That will set him apart.”
Jawan advance booking and box office predictions
Jawan seems to have started well on that note. With over two days to go for the release, Jawan’s Tamil version has registered advance booking of Rs 38 lakh while the Telugu version is at Rs 25 lakh. The combined figure of Rs 63 lakh is not far behind Pathaan’s final number of Rs 82 lakh. It will easily surpass that. As things stand, Jawan looks well on course to break Pathaan’s opening day record in Hindi alone. The Tamil and Telugu versions should add Rs 5 crore net as well, maybe even more. If that comes to pass, only word of mouth can determine how high Jawan can go, or how quickly it may stop. Jawan, directed by Atlee, also stars Nayanthara and Vijay Sethupathi. It releases on September 7.
